Current "explosion" of wind power

In recent months, a series of private investors such as: Baywa r.e Projects Vietnam Co., Ltd., Trung Nam Group, Europlast Energy Investment Joint Stock Company, Ha Do Group... have sent documents to Lang Son Provincial People's Committee, Lang Son Department of Industry and Trade to propose permission to research and invest in wind power projects.

At the end of 2020, GE Vietnam Co., Ltd. also asked the People's Committee of Lang Son province to allow the survey to implement two wind power projects with a total capacity of up to 418 MW.

When being consulted to synthesize projects to add to the Power Plan VIII, a number of provinces and cities also want to add more space for wind power.

The above move shows that wind power is still an area of ​​great interest to investors, although the FIT price for wind power has expired on October 31, 2021 and the new policy for wind power is still being abandoned. open.

In fact, in the period 2005-2015, the renewable energy source in the system is very modest and unchanged, only about 50 MW to 70 MW and accounts for a small proportion of about 0.3-0.4% of the total energy production. power in the system.

But after the solar power craze, in the past 3 years, wind power has gone through a period of time that Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, former Director of the Center for Renewable Energy used the word "boom" to refer to. Mr. Tuan shared: “The development of wind power in Vietnam in the period 2011-2021 is a breakthrough, especially in 2021. In 2011 there were only 30 MW of wind power in operation, by 2021, wind power capacity will come in. operation is already 4,800 MW.”

In addition, Mr. Tuan also noted: "The explosive development just now is thanks to the wind power policy, we have had very active development support. However, in order to continue to develop according to its potential, it is necessary to have supportive policies to find stronger policies and tools to be able to develop.”

The price of wind power up to 1,900 VND/kWh (with onshore wind power) creates a push for investors to "pour" money into this new field. In fact, the operating capacity of 4,800 MW of wind power has not yet fully reflected the heat of this type of energy when there are still thousands of MW of wind power projects that cannot meet the commercial operation date before November 1, 2021.

Developing wind power to achieve Net-zero

Currently, about 80% of global energy needs are supplied by fossil fuel sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas. Greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the main cause of global warming, causing enormous impacts on the environment and human ecosystems.

To achieve the goal of neutralizing carbon emissions by mid-century, limit the global temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. As the Paris Agreement against climate change has set, the world must have strong steps and appropriate policies to promote energy transition, limit use, move towards complete elimination of fossil fuels, and at the same time develop the application of non-polluting forms of renewable energy. environment.

That is why right after Vietnam's commitment at COP26, the draft Power Master Plan VIII was requested by the Government to be revised in the direction of increasing wind power and reducing thermal power.

Developing wind power to achieve Net-zero

When proposing to invest in a project in Lang Son, leaders of Trung Nam Group also mentioned COP26 as an indicator for green energy development in Vietnam.

Mr. Nguyen Van Vy, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Energy Association shared: “From 2015 to now, Vietnam has changed from an energy exporting country to an energy importing country. Therefore, the issue of renewable energy development is very important in ensuring Vietnam's energy security.”

In Resolution 55 of the Politburo, the proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity by 2050 will reach about 40-45%. However, referring to the Prime Minister's commitment at the COP26 Conference in the UK, Mr. Nguyen Van Vy said that with that commitment, the proportion of renewable energy by 2050 will not be 40-45% anymore, but may be increased much.

But analyzing the power structure until 2045, Mr. Nguyen Van Vy found that the installed capacity of thermal power including coal power and gas thermal power accounts for about 37.7%. Thus, by 2045, the electricity output from thermal power will still account for about 50-60% of the total electricity output of the whole system.

In addition, Mr. Nguyen Van Vy also further assessed: "It can be affirmed that following that structure, it is impossible to achieve the goal of neutralizing greenhouse gases by 2050".

Is "hot" followed by "freezing"?

In the explanation on developing an energy development strategy to 2030, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also cited studies with the statement: The rapid growth of renewable energy has demonstrated the commitment of governments around the world. world. More than 170 countries have set renewable energy targets and nearly 150 countries have issued preferential policies for renewable energy development. The private sector also plays an important role in the development of renewable energy on a global scale.

Based on this growth momentum, renewable energy is well positioned to play a central role in the implementation of international agreements on climate change and the sustainable development goals.

Estimates by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that doubling the share of renewable energy to 36% by 2030 is technically and economically feasible.

Vietnam is not out of the general trend of the world. The development of solar power and wind power in the past 5 years has sent the message of Vietnam's green - cleaner energy transition.

Recycled energy

When formulating the national energy development strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2045, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has also carefully studied the potential for wind power development in the coming period.

Through analysis and calculation, the total technical potential of onshore wind power for the whole country can reach 42,608 km2 or 217.3 GW. If excluding the low wind speed ≤5.5 m/s which is considered unfeasible with the current level of science and technology, the technical potential of wind power on land is about 47 GW.

It can be seen that the potential for wind power is still very large, which is a premise for the development of wind power projects in the coming time when the price of wind power is on a downward trend.

According to studies, the investment rate for solar and battery power decreased by an average of nearly 14%/year in the period 2010-2020 (wind power decreased by about 5%) and is forecasted to continue to decrease in the period 2020- 2040. Many renewable energy projects such as wind power, solar power can now compete directly with traditional coal/gas power projects (even with some already operating/depreciated plants).

But when the FIT price for wind power has expired, the mechanisms and policies for wind power need to be promulgated soon with clear and feasible criteria. After the FIT price for solar power ended at the end of 2020, since then, the solar power development mechanism has not been issued, resulting in no further projects being implemented.

The FIT for wind power has also been finalized on October 31, 2021, while the new mechanism for wind power has not been announced yet. The bidding mechanism for renewable energy projects supported by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank for many years has not been issued yet.

Which direction for wind power?

A business leader said: “This makes it impossible for investors to calculate financial problems and economic efficiency for wind power projects. The risk of "freezing" of wind power development is present without a clear policy and balancing the interests of the State - Investors and electricity users with appropriate risk-sharing mechanisms."

From the experience of investing in wind power projects for many years, on energy forums, Mr. Nguyen Hoang Long, General Director of Gelex Infrastructure Company noted: “I feel the next direction of the energy market. are similar to the previous traffic BOT. In particular, after the race is a quiet period, when the new mechanism introduces very strict regulations, putting a lot of risk on investors, while profit margins remain unchanged, and even decrease. As a result, investors were forced to withdraw. The energy market needs to avoid this situation as much as possible."

When the FIT price has expired, Mr. Nguyen Van Vy said that there is still no long-term policy to create a stable and predictable investment environment, ensuring predictable revenue streams of projects. Therefore, this expert suggests for large projects, applying the mechanism that investors prepare the project and negotiate with EVN on the electricity selling price like thermal power and hydropower projects on the basis of ensuring that investors return capital and have reasonable profit.

Mr. Mark Hutchinson, Chairman, Southeast Asia Working Group of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said: “To achieve Net Zero by 2050, renewable energy needs to be strongly developed. To meet this demand, the Government of Vietnam is continuing to review and finalize the draft Power Master Plan VIII to increase the share of renewable energy, including wind power, significantly. Offshore wind power is one of the important renewable energy sources to help Vietnam achieve its Net Zero commitment by 2050. With high load hours and reduced costs, offshore wind power is considered one of the few companies. technology can effectively replace coal power.”

"Achieving the Net Zero commitment by 2050 will require a combination of renewable energy development and fossil fuel removal, increased storage flow to balance the grid, and carbon removal from the atmosphere. environment, increase flexibility in electricity demand, strengthen the development of the power grid, build a flexible electricity price mechanism and many other policies and actions," said Mr. Mark Hutchinson.